May 1, 2009

Flu Pandemic Update 05/01/09

It's mid-morning in Europe and it appears that there is more concern in Geneva than in D.C. and Atlanta about the severity of a swine flu H1N1 pandemic.

From World Health Organization (WHO): 1 May 2009 -- The situation continues to evolve rapidly. As of 06:00 GMT, 1 May 2009, 11 countries have officially reported 331 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection. The United States Government has reported 109 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death. Mexico has reported 156 confirmed human cases of infection, including nine deaths. The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (34), Germany (3), Israel (2), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (3), Spain (13), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (8).

The most recent information from Centers for Disease Control (CDC) is contained in a mortality / morbidity report directed at public health officials and physicians. It has a much less anxious tone. "The findings from this investigation (in a population known to be at low risk for severe disease from seasonal influenza) indicate that symptoms appear to be similar to those of seasonal influenza. The risk for severe disease among higher risk groups is not yet known."

The most frequently reported symptoms were cough, subjective fever, fatigue, headache, sore throat, runny nose, chills), and muscle aches. Each of these symptoms occurred in at least 80% of patients. Nausea, stomach ache, diarrhea, shortness of breath, or joint pain occurred in about half of the patients. Maximum temperatures ranged from 99 to 104 degrees, one patient (of 44) was briefly hospitalized.



Overall, there have been between 109 and 135 confirmed cases in the US - and only one death. The rate of new case reporting in the US seems to have stabilized and in the CDC report a graph of new case reporting dates would seem to support that conclusion (at least in the New York population where 45 cases were confirmed prior to 04/25/09 and only five have been since (despite an increase in testing).

Our recommendations are unchanged; we strongly recommend attention to hygeine, hand washing, avoidance of sick individuals and travel to Mexico. Certainly panic is not appropriate. We should know more over the next several days and as information becomes available, we will share our thoughts. Have a happy, safe and healthy weekend!

Comments / Posted by Scott W. Yates, MD, MBA, MS, FACP