April 29, 2009

Flu Pandemic Update

The Public Health Conundrum: hope for the best, prepare for the worse and still avoid panic. The problem is that it is not yet known how dangerous this virus is. Not all flu pandemics are serious.

The 1918 Spanish Flu (an H1N1 virus) pandemic saw infection of between
20 and 40% of the world's population and killed 20 million worldwide,
including 500,000 in the US. The 1957 Asian Flu pandemic killed almost
70,000 in the US and 2 million worldwide. The 1968 Hong Kong flu (H3N2)
killed a million worldwide and almost 34,000 in the US.

To keep these numbers in perspective, the "regular" seasonal influenza
virus kills about 36,000 people a year in the U.S.

Upgrade to Phase 5

The World Health Organization on Wednesday raised its alert level for
swine flu to phase 5, one step short of a full pandemic, as the disease
continues to spread to around the globe.

Raising the alert indicates that the virus is causing multiple
outbreaks, or widespread human infection. It also signals that efforts
to produce a vaccine will be ramped up. The WHO said all countries
should activate pandemic preparedness plans.

WHO Director-General Margaret Chan made the decision Wednesday to raise
the alert level from phase 4 -- signifying transmission in only one
country -- after reviewing the latest scientific evidence on the
outbreak.

Texas Responds

Texas Gov. Rick Perry on Wednesday issued a disaster proclamation. State
Health Commissioner David L. Lakey said there were 16 confirmed cases in
Texas, including a 23-month old child in critical condition (who later
died). Another hospitalized patient -- a pregnant woman -- also was in
critical condition, with a swine flu diagnosis considered a "high
likelihood," Dr. Lakey said, cautioning that pregnant women may be more
susceptible to complications from the infection.

More information:

Explanation of the World Health Organization (WHO) pandemic "Phase" system

Perspective: Pandemics and Scares in the 20th Century

Prevention Recommendations from the Center for Executive Medicine

Comments / Posted by Scott W. Yates, MD, MBA, MS, FACP